In a bombshell study on youth mortality, Dr. Stephen Woolf at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine reports that young adults aged 25-44 experienced a 71.2% increase in mortality from 2010 through 2021.

Was that increased mortality rate the result of the COVID-19 pandemic? Not directly. COVID-19 increased mortality rates mostly for people over the age of 65. According to Dr. Woolf, the causes were “drug overdoses and early-onset diseases (e.g., hypertensive disease, endocrine and metabolic disorders, alcoholic liver disease).”

Dr. Woolf has unique qualifications for his analysis, which appeared in the most recent edition of The Milbank Quarterly: A Multidisciplinary Journal of Population Health and Health Policy. Dr. Woolf is both an M.D. and has a Master of Health Policy (MHP) from Johns Hopkins University.

Dr. Woolf is Director Emeritus of and senior advisor to the VCU Center on Society and Health. His writings and work show a keen interest in “the influence of social determinants of health.” His research looked at “cause-specific mortality rates” in 16 high-income countries. His sources of information included:

• The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
• The United States Mortality Database
• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
• The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

What Dr. Woolf found was an astonishing increase in the mortality rate for young adults, from 140 deaths per 100,000 people in 2010 to 239 deaths per 100,000 in 2021. The leading cause? Drug overdose deaths, which increased sevenfold to become the leading cause of death for persons aged 25-44.

Other major contributors to increased mortality in this age bracket include:

• 75.5% increase in homicides from 2014-2023
• 43.5% increase in deaths due to automobile accidents
• 40% increase in suicides from 2000-2023

If you or someone you know is having thoughts of self-injury, the 9-8-8 Lifeline is a good place to find support. An analysis of Dr. Woolf’s research by the website, StudyFinds, says much of the increase comes from disease rather than injury:

Deaths from diabetes and other metabolic and hormone-related illnesses rose nearly a quarter between 2010 and 2019 among young adults. Deaths tied to liver damage from drinking more than doubled between 2010 and 2023. Deaths from alcohol-related mental health disorders more than tripled in that same window.

Overall, America’s position in world health has slipped substantially. U.S. life expectancy now ranks 38th among countries with over one million population, well behind all of Western Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan. Many of the reasons for the increased mortality rate come down to one thing: unaffordable healthcare.

There is no universal healthcare in the U.S., and increases in inequality have made even minimal health insurance unreachable for many Americans. Older Americans are provided with Medicare, but Americans aged 25-44 are not. “A built environment that favors cars over walking and green space, and public policies that put less emphasis on collective welfare than peer nations do” also contributed to the rise in mortality.

Americans are also guilty of riskier behaviors, including “higher calorie consumption and firearm ownership,” which increase premature mortality. StudyFinds points out:

Other wealthy countries […] built universal health coverage, stronger safety nets, and tighter consumer and environmental protections decades ago, and it shows up in their citizens’ death certificates today.

Well, that’s very blunt. Dr. Woolf blames “public policies that do not prioritize the health and safety of the population or that perpetuate health inequities.” This is one way of looking at this crisis; another is to examine why young people are increasing behaviors that are harmful to their health. I will examine that question in my next post for AddictionNews.

Written by Steve O’Keefe. First published October 2, 2026.

Sources:

“US Life Expectancy and Increasing Mortality Rates: An Analysis of the Crisis,” The Milbank Quarterly, September 23, 2026.

“Death Rates For Young American Adults Jumped 71% In Just Over A Decade,” StudyFinds, September 26, 2026.

Image courtesy of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, used under Fair Use: Commentary.