I tried to place a bet on Kalshi, the online prediction market, but I couldn’t find the wager I was looking for. My question is, “Will the U.S. Congress pass restrictions on online gambling this year?”

Kalshi is making its own large wager on this question. Along with gambling syndicates FanDuel and DraftKings, they are piling millions of dollars into the midterm elections in an attempt to hold off legislation restricting prediction markets and sports betting sites. They’re betting they can recoup these multi-million-dollar campaign donations from the bank accounts of their customers.

Since the 2018 Supreme Court decision striking down bans on sports betting, the online gambling industry has grown so large, so quickly, that it has nearly unlimited funds available to stymie any state or federal restrictions.

In an article exposing the extent of online gambling in America, Katie Couric Media reports that “U.S. commercial gaming revenue hit a record $71.92 billion in 2024.” That excludes the prediction markets, which are estimated to be taking in $10 billion a month. It also excludes gambling inside gaming apps, which accounts for more than half the top-grossing apps on Google Play and the Apple App Store, according to Couric.

Katic Couric Media editorial director, Molly Simms, interviewed one of the nation’s leading experts in gambling addiction, Jody Bechtold, CEO of The Better Institute and co-author of The Gambling Disorder Treatment Handbook: A Guide for Mental Health Professionals. 

One of the things most concerning to Bechtold is how the age for legal gambling keeps getting pushed younger and younger. Most of the states that allow online gambling restrict participation to adults over the age of 21. Prediction markets allow accounts for 18-21 year olds, giving them legal access to essentially the same wagers.

Bechtold explains to Simms the big problem with prediction markets:

I think the prediction market is the most obvious way that people are getting around gambling regulations: You’re wagering on sports or just about anything, but there’s no regulations. So then each state doesn’t have a way of promoting any of their responsible gambling tools. And there’s no income generated for the states, because these markets don’t fall under the definition of gambling, and yet it is truly gambling.

In a segment on the YouTube show, Breaking Points, co-host Saagar Enjeti, a staunch opponent of legalized gambling, reported on a recent decision by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco in favor of the State of Nevada’s cease-and-desist order shutting down prediction markets for unauthorized gambling.

This new ruling conflicts with a previous Circuit Court ruling that Kalshi is regulated as an exchange by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a federal body, and is not subject to state laws. So much for state’s rights. The issue will now go to the Supreme Court, which brings us back to the oversized lobbying efforts on the part of the online gambling empires to curtail any proposed restrictions.

“[Donald Trump, Jr.] is involved both with Polymarket and with Kalsi,” Enjeti notes. “The Trump administration and Don Jr. have very specifically made it clear that they do not want states to be able to regulate these markets.”

Enjeti says Donald Trump Jr. made an appeal at a recent meeting of Republican state officials for states to back off calls to regulate prediction markets. In contrast to their all-Republican donations in the last election cycle, Kalshi is hedging its bets with donations to Democrats as well. The company has hired ex-Biden administration personnel to help it with state Democrats.

Enjeti accuses Kalshi of “regulatory capture” of the CFTC and now going after political capture using the midterm elections to fend off any restrictions. The company is also purchasing mindshare using partnerships with major league sports such as the National Football League (NFL), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the U.S. Open tennis tournament.

In December of 2025, Kalshi partnered with cable news channel CNN to become the network’s “official prediction market partner.” Don’t expect to see any stories on CNN about the need for state regulation over prediction markets. I wonder if I could make that bet on Kalshi? As for the midterm elections, which Kalshi is desperately trying to sway, you should now be able to bet on the races right through CNN on any Comcast/Xfinity screens.

Written by Steve O’Keefe. First published September 11, 2026.

Sources:

“The Hidden Addiction Crisis Experts Say Is Getting Worse,” Katie Couric Media, March 26, 2026.

“Don Jr Tells Republicans TO LAY OFF Gambling Websites,” Breaking Points, September 1, 2026.

Image courtesy of Kalshi News, used under Fair Use: Commentary.