For the first time for as long as I can remember, the U.S. Federal Government has genuinely good news to report about the trend of overdose deaths in America. National Public Radio’s NPR Morning Edition broke the story that for the 12 months between April 2023 and April 2024, deaths caused by drug overdose declined by over 10%.

As shown in Figure 1, the number of overdose deaths is still high, but the curve is really and truly headed downward for the first time in the last 10 years. After plateauing at an astonishing 111,448 deaths per month in August 2023, the curve began to bend. Every month since, the rolling average number of deaths has declined, finally dipping below 100,000 deaths per month in April of 2024.

Figure 1: The rolling average of monthly deaths due to overdose peaked in August 2023, and has declined steadily every month since. Image courtesy of the National Center for Health Statistics. Used under Fair Use: Commentary.

The news is especially good in the eastern half of the United States. Led by North Carolina, which has seen a stunning 22.86% decline in monthly deaths by overdose, the progress has spread throughout the east with 10%-20% declines in dozens of states. The western U.S. is a mixed picture, however, with overdose rates still on the rise in Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and Iowa.

The numbers don’t just reflect a drop in overdose deaths, they reflect a steep decline in emergency room visits and substantial savings for healthcare systems. NPR quotes UNC epidemiologist, Dr. Nabarun Dasgupta, who is part of the Opioid Data Lab:

[T]he drop in state-level mortality numbers corresponds with similar steep declines in emergency room visits linked to overdoses.

The billions of dollars poured into addiction treatment and recovery appears to be paying off. The progress began when the prescription painkiller spigot was turned off, reducing the number of people getting addicted to opioids for pain. 

A second major factor is the distribution of naloxone, or Narcan, along with training on its use. NPR says an estimated 85% of people with opioid use disorder in the Seattle area now carry Narcan.

A third factor is relaxing regulations on pharmacists prescribing buprenorphine. Dr. Nora D. Volkow at the National Institute on Drug Abuse credits the “Expansion of naloxone and medications for opioid use disorder — these strategies worked.”

NPR interviews half a dozen state heads of drug abatement programs, and everyone is thrilled with the decline but shy about connecting it with a reduction in addiction or an improvement in addiction treatment beyond keeping addicts alive. Most of them will get better, if they stay alive long enough, with or without professional help. Longevity is a major factor in successful recovery.

Written by Steve O’Keefe. First published September 24, 2024.

Sources:

“U.S. overdose deaths plummet, saving thousands of lives,” NPR Morning Edition, September 18, 2024.

“Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts,” National Center for Health Statistics, August 14, 2024.

Images courtesy of the National Center for Health Statistics. Used under Fair Use: Commentary.